To the brink and back
- Rajaraman, emeritus professor of Physics, JNU discussed how the U.S. and North Korea agreed to talks after being close to military action last year.
- North Korea pulled out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 and intensified its nuclear programme.
- This led to sanctions by UN.
- But North Korea continued to conduct missile and nuclear weapon test.
- This impact the Economy of North Korea. Its export fall drastically
- Author says that despite of sanctions there is no revolt against the regime and North Korea has found the sanctions manageable and continued with its nuclear programme
- The North Korean people have lived thorough much worse deprivation, particularly during the famine years from 1994 to 1998.
- The regime survived those years through a combination of a brutal internal security apparatus, political indoctrination, and tight media control.
- There has been a deep-rooted conviction in the successive Kim regimes that only a nuclear deterrent can keep USA away from Korean peninsula.
- This is intensified after the fall of Gadhafi regime in Libya
- In feb 2018, South Korea invited north Korea for winter Olympics. This led to breaking of ice.
- In April, north-south summit happen and a clear message is given to US that North Korea would “refrain” from any further nuclear or missile tests.
- This led to announcement of trump-kim meeting in May.
- This meeting was announced without much ground preparation work and lower level preparation.
- US demand the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula before any talk.
- Lack of coordination also led to some wrong signaling like Libyan model led to collapse of summit.
- But both the leader further soften their stand and meeting is scheduled on 12th
- Author assume that North Korea would move toward partial disarmament rather than complete denuclearization. This may lead to win win situation for all.
India re-defines its regional role
- According to Zorawara Dualat Singh, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, analyses change in approach of India’s foreign policy.
2. Author observe that in last few year India’s foreign policy is tilted towards US, but PM recent speech at Singapore and SCO indicate reorientation of India’s Foreign policy.
3. Excerpts of PM speech at Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 1
India’s as an independent power:
- Today the world is facing power shifts, uncertainty and competition over geopolitical ideas and political models. At this time India would adopt ‘strategic autonomy’ and not follow any camp.
- Indian democracy believe in pluralism, dialogue and peaceful co-existence.
- India doesn’t believe in clash of civilisation (samuel p huntington) and any ideological war (communism vs capitalism)
- His speech indicate that essence of India’s Foreign policy is still non-alignment.
4. India’s relation with Russia, USA and China.
- On relation with Russia and USA, PM says India has overlapping interest in International and regional geopolitics
- PM portrayed India-China relation as complex and having ‘many layers’.
- PM futher add that stability in India-China relation is important for India and world.
5. On Indo-Pacific
- PM affirms that India’s engagement in Indo-Pacific is not to contain china.
- India will continue to emphasis on a “free, open, inclusive region’ and a “common rule based” Indo-pacific order.
- For legitimacy, the common rule should be based on ‘consensus of all’ rather than on ‘power of few’.
- PM also advice USA and china not to convert their normal competition into conflict.
- PM ask for ‘Asia of cooperation’ rather than ‘Asia of conflict’.
6. Reorientation of India’s Foreign policy is driven by
- India’s unique geographical position at the rimland of Eurasia and at the mouth of the Indo-Pacific.
- continental and maritime environment around the subcontinent.
The Story of two ceasefires
- Happymon Jacob, Associate professor , Jawaharlal Nehru University, analyse the need for negotiations, political concessions and soft power vis-a vis J&K and Pakistan.
- India and Pakistan witnessing ceasefire violence on the border.
- Impacts of ceasefire violation:
- Damage to civilians habitats
- Military casualty rates going up.
- Increasing number if Kashmiri youngsters’ joining the rank of military and terror attacks.
- Reasons for violation
- Lack of political dialogue between India and Pakistan especially on Kashmir.
- Fundamental structural flaws in the India-Pakistan ceasefire agreements.
- Recently, India has decided to make political consensus in the form of conciliatory moves with Pakistan because:
- It would be risky to have violent border and troubled Kashmir
- Displacement of large civilians from the border villages
- India’s policy of disproportionate bombardment against Pakistani forces became problematic for the locals.
- Infiltration into J&K
- Rising militant attacks in the State.
- Desire for rapprochement between India and Pakistan.
- Measures needed to sustain the ceasefire:
- Formalising the ceasefire agreement between two nations.
- India-Pakistan dialogue is needed.
- Need to have negotiations, political concessions and soft power within J&K and Pakistan.
India to host first BIMSTEC war games in September
1-India will host the first military exercise of the BIMSTEC(Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) group.
2-Theme: Counter-terrorism in semi-urban terrain and cordon and search, and each side will bring in some 30 soldiers.
3-BIMSTEC countries held a disaster management exercise in 2017 but this is the first military exercise of the grouping which brings together important neigbours of India in South and Southeast Asia.
4- Focus areas:
- To promote strategic alignment among the member-states
- To share best practices in the area of counter-terrorism
5- About BIMSTEC:
- BIMSTEC was set up in 1997.
- Member countries: India, Bangladesh, Bhutan Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand.