Big vision, hazy detail: 

Big vision, hazy detail

Context:

Of the seven countries he visited last week, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson chose to focus on India while spelling out his strategic vision. He highlighted the role of India in the U.S’s plans in two spheres.

1-      In Afghanistan, as part of President Donald Trump’s new South Asia Policy, and

2-  In the Indo-Pacific, as part of U.S. plans to counter China’s influence and contain North Korea.

Outcome of visit:

  •  Both India and U.S spoke about building an alternative coalition to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative as well as its aggressive moves in the South China Sea.
  • For its part, India desisted from any clear commitments on joint patrols to ensure freedom of navigation  in the South China Sea, or even on the foundational agreements the Indian and the U.S. militaries must conclude to deepen cooperation in the region.

Challenges:

While India and the U.S. have taken great strides in aligning their vision and their hopes for future partnership, reality often trips up such lofty goals. The reasons for this are:

1-      Geography:

  • American troops remain in Afghanistan, it is difficult for the U.S. to completely disengage from Pakistan
  • For India, while a maritime relationship with the U.S. is desirable, geographic proximity to China makes a very close alliance with the U.S. difficult.
  • The other issue pertains to the strategic confusion within Washington and Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from U.S. commitments in Asia, Europe and at the UN, drawing questions about its reliability as a partner.

Recent development on India-US relations:

  • The India-U.S.  Commercial ties have seen an uptick in recent years with NDA government’s market oriented reforms.
  • India is presently the US’s ninth largest goods trading partner.
  • India is also one of the fastest growing sources of foreign direct investment in the US, at nearly $11 billion.
  • In a groundbreaking development illustrating growing economic convergence, the US delivered its first shipment of crude oil to the Paradip port a few weeks ago. This will lay the foundation for a burgeoning cooperation in the energy sector.
  • Indian startups are now open to receiving 100 per cent funding from foreign venture capitalists — a recent reform implemented by the government of India.
  •  A recent report predicts dramatic shifts in the global economic order by 2050 — six of the seven largest economies will be emerging economies led by China and India.
  • India will need $4.5 trillion in investment by 2040 for infrastructure and economic growth.
  • It is crucial for India to be able to develop its infrastructure, attract capital and cutting-edge technology, grow its economy and advance opportunities for its people.
  • America has become a major arms supplier for India.
  • America has begun to clear the path for strategic regional coordination between two nations.

India-US Defence Relations

 

  • The defence partnership has been blossoming, growing and expanding over the last many years. In 2005 India-US framework agreement on civil nuclear cooperation was signed. This was renewed in 2015.
  • Recently India was designated as “a major defence partner”.This is a designation that the US provides to its NATO members, to its allies like Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea. India will also be stepping into these ranges of countries.
  • There are large numbers of initiatives on defence cooperation and one of them is Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI).
  • Starting from the base level of zero in 2005 where there was no exchange, US has become the second largest supplier of defence equipments to India with orders more than $15 billion.  There is scope of making it trilateral by bringing in India-US-Japan or India-US-Australia. The Malabar exercise is in good progress.
  • There are so many indicators to prove that India – U.S relationship in defence and also in other areas like science, knowledge, and culture is in bright spot for both the countries.There are talks about Counter terrorism where we see prospects of greater relations.
  • In 2016, India and United States signed the LEMOA.

Significance of Present visit for India-U.S bilateral relations:

    • The visit set the course for India-U.S. relations going ahead, mapping convergences in connectivity, trade and economics and counter-terrorism cooperation.
    • America wants to be India’s most “reliable partner” in an increasingly uncertain world.
    • The U.S. put India at the very heart of America’s efforts to balance an increasingly assertive China.
  • The meeting will lead to more intensive regional collaboration between the US and Asian democracies- India, Japan and Australia — to ensure peace and promote prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.
  • In facing up to India’s concerns about Pakistan’s use of terror as an instrument of foreign policy and China’s quest for hegemony in the Indo-Pacific, Trump and Tillerson have raised hopes for a closer regional alignment between Delhi and Washington.
  • Tillerson sketched out a crucial role for India in maintaining in stability in the Asia Pacific region—along with partners like Japan and Australia besides the US. This was against the backdrop of the unpredictable rise of China.

Conclusion:

India should resist the temptation for an endless debate on whether America can move away from China and Pakistan and be India’s reliable partner. Delhi should focus, instead, on strengthening practical cooperation wherever possible with Trump’s Washington.

Both the countries need to work together on the political and security challenges across the Indo- Pacific region, from mounting tensions with North Korea, the Rohingya crisis, and India’s own standoff with China over Dokhlam to the lingering challenges in Afghanistan

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