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Source– The post is based on the article “Scenarios for the future of India, and the world” published in The Hindu on 6th December 2022.
Syllabus: GS3- Indian economy and development
Relevance– Scenario of economic growth and development
News– The article explains the possible scenarios for growth and development of the Indian economy. It also explains the choice of developmental model that should be promoted by India at global level.
Making predictions of the economic growth of nations is a lucrative industry employing many economists, researchers, analysts, and commentators.
What are the scenarios of India’s future predicted by the WEF and CII report called ‘India and the World: Scenarios to 2025’?
It projected three scenarios of India’s future-
First scenario– It looked deeper within India’s current reality at that time.It revealed forces which would dampen growth in the future if not responded to in good time. The opening of India’s economy had created more opportunities for private enterprises. There was rapid increases in the wealth of the top 1%. Millionaires were multiplying.
While entrepreneurial spirits were unleashed, signs of their increasing frustration were also visible. Violence was increasing. It was not restricted to rural, and Naxal areas. Urban crimes were also increasing.
Second scenario– It showed increasing inequality and insecurity. It could compel the government to impose controls on politics for security and also play a larger role in the economy without adequate resources. A heavy-handed government would weaken India’s democracy and stall its economy.
Third scenario– It was more attractive. Here, the changes that people need are produced by them. They are led by local leaders based on local production and consumption. Such enterprises use local resources and local energies.
They are more sustainable than top-down, large-scale programmes. If India’s policymakers pursued this model of change, economic growth would be more inclusive, more environmentally sustainable, and faster too.
What is the situation around the world today?
There are tensions within wealth driven economic growth the world has pursued in the last 30 years. Increasing inequality and insecurity around the world have resulted in reactionary forces in many countries, including China and Russia amongst the BRICs. They have appeared in India too.
Inequalities have further increased. Top-down solutions to the global environmental crisis are producing only more hot air. Violence between powerful countries deploying the latest technologies is harming millions of innocent people around the world.
Which model India should promote at G-20?
It must promote the choice that revolves around local systems solutions for environmental and economic problems, cooperatively implemented by communities. This model solves global systemic problems. It also creates a more harmonious world.
It must also adopt the “Gandhian” approach to promote this choice.