The new bipolarity in Asia (TH Op)

 The new bipolarity in Asia (TH Op)

Context

Having one set of nations ranged against China is not going to be easy in the prevailing

Circumstances

Backdrop: The Dichotomy in the global order today

  • S.

President believes in a world governed by self-interest, with little room for shared responsibility, or lofty ideas about the spread of democracy

  • China

In contrast, Chinese President is taking the high road, disdaining the transactional approach favoured by the U.S. President

Instead, he is projecting himself as a firm believer in globalisation and free trade

  • Effect

Today, the US President confronts major opposition to his policies within the U.S.

The Chinese President’s grip on China is, if anything, stronger than before. 

The Quadrilateral: Indication of an Anti-China Coalition Rising

  • US seeks to create a coalition of all those willing to align with the it against China’s expanding ambitions and its inexorable march towards dominance in Asia
  • Talks held recently at the level of officials between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India (the Quadrilateral) are seen as an indication of this
  • It marks an important shift in India’s attitude, and could be a prologue to what is in store

More Countries to Join

As China’s expansionist attitudes intensify, more countries in East and Southeast Asia are expected to align with the Quadrilateral group of countries e.g. Vietnam could be one such country, but quite a few other countries in the region could follow suit

India and US: Deepening ties

The recent ASEAN & APEC meetings provided a further glimpse of attitudinal changes that are in the making

  • India and US announced that the two countries were prepared to work together for the future of Asia
  • It is, perhaps, for the first time that India has indicated a resolve to align openly with the U.S. to tackle broader issues in the Indo-Pacific region
  • Indian PM asserted that India will stand by ASEAN in its quest for a rules-based regional security architecture
  • This can again be interpreted as implicit criticism of China’s attitude and stance with regard to disputes in the South China Sea

Picking up the gauntlet (armored glove)

  • The recent 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress placed special emphasis on a strong military “capable of winning wars”
  • The deliberations left little room for any adjustment or compromise to accommodate the concerns of other countries of Asia, or for that matter the U.S
  • The deliberations of the Party Congress have further emboldened China to pursue its preferred course of action.

Advantage China

Apart from its massive military build-up, China is positioned most advantageously as far as economic aspects are concerned

  • It is today the most important trading partner for over 90 countries
  • It is a major lender across the world
  • Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has caught the imagination of the world, including that of Europe. While the economic benefits of the BRI are still in dispute, most countries of Asia and Europe, including many of India’s neighbours, do not seem to have a problem with the BRI

Sustaining bipolarity against China difficult

Reasons:

  • Support for BRI

Latent concerns about Chinese expansionism have not prevented several Asian nations from endorsing and backing the BRI

  • No criticsm for China on siding with Pakistan

Most Asian nations also show no inclination or desire to blame China for siding with Pakistan, which continues to shelter high-ranking global terrorists, including Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar

  • Luring with Money

China, for its part, has embarked on a charm offensive to win the support of Asian nations through lavish aid offers and other financial inducements

  • Deals with US

Even US President, during his recent visit to China, seemed to have softened his criticism of China, after China produced some attractive mega deals

All this only exposes the vulnerabilities of bipolarity in the extant situation today.

India Determined

  • It has lately taken up issues well beyond South Asia, such as North Korea and China’s actions in the South China Sea
  • Currently, India is emerging as one of the countries in the region firmly committed to freedom of navigation and over-flight, and for unimpeded commerce based on the principles of international law, particularly the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
  • This puts it in direct confrontation with China, as also in opposing China’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific.
  • The Quadrilateral idea with India’s implicit acceptance of the concept, is likely to further irk China.

 Conclusion

China is almost certain to take effective steps to break this so-called encirclement (the Quadrilateral), and use both force and inducements to win more and more Asian countries to its side. The consequences of this could be quite significant for peace and stability in the Asian region.

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