To the brink and back
- Rajaraman, emeritus professor of Physics, JNU discussed how the U.S. and North Korea agreed to talks after being close to military action last year.
- North Korea pulled out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 and intensified its nuclear programme.
- This led to sanctions by UN.
- But North Korea continued to conduct missile and nuclear weapon test.
- This impact the Economy of North Korea. Its export fall drastically
- Author says that despite of sanctions there is no revolt against the regime and North Korea has found the sanctions manageable and continued with its nuclear programme
- The North Korean people have lived thorough much worse deprivation, particularly during the famine years from 1994 to 1998.
- The regime survived those years through a combination of a brutal internal security apparatus, political indoctrination, and tight media control.
- There has been a deep-rooted conviction in the successive Kim regimes that only a nuclear deterrent can keep USA away from Korean peninsula.
- This is intensified after the fall of Gadhafi regime in Libya
- In feb 2018, South Korea invited north Korea for winter Olympics. This led to breaking of ice.
- In April, north-south summit happen and a clear message is given to US that North Korea would “refrain” from any further nuclear or missile tests.
- This led to announcement of trump-kim meeting in May.
- This meeting was announced without much ground preparation work and lower level preparation.
- US demand the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula before any talk.
- Lack of coordination also led to some wrong signaling like Libyan model led to collapse of summit.
- But both the leader further soften their stand and meeting is scheduled on 12th
- Author assume that North Korea would move toward partial disarmament rather than complete denuclearization. This may lead to win win situation for all.