To the brink and back

To the brink and back

Article

  1. Rajaraman, emeritus professor of Physics, JNU discussed how the U.S. and North Korea agreed to talks after being close to military action last year.

Important Analysis

  1. North Korea pulled out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 and intensified its nuclear programme.
  2. This led to sanctions by UN.
  • But North Korea continued to conduct missile and nuclear weapon test.
  1. This impact the Economy of North Korea. Its export fall drastically
  2. Author says that despite of sanctions there is no revolt against the regime and North Korea has found the sanctions manageable and continued with its nuclear programme
  • The North Korean people have lived thorough much worse deprivation, particularly during the famine years from 1994 to 1998.
  • The regime survived those years through a combination of a brutal internal security apparatus, political indoctrination, and tight media control.
  1. There has been a deep-rooted conviction in the successive Kim regimes that only a nuclear deterrent can keep USA away from Korean peninsula.
  • This is intensified after the fall of Gadhafi regime in Libya
  1. In feb 2018, South Korea invited north Korea for winter Olympics. This led to breaking of ice.
  2. In April, north-south summit happen and a clear message is given to US that North Korea would “refrain” from any further nuclear or missile tests.
  3. This led to announcement of trump-kim meeting in May.
  4. This meeting was announced without much ground preparation work and lower level preparation.
  5. US demand the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula before any talk.
  6. Lack of coordination also led to some wrong signaling like Libyan model led to collapse of summit.
  7. But both the leader further soften their stand and meeting is scheduled on 12th
  8. Author assume that North Korea would move toward partial disarmament rather than complete denuclearization. This may lead to win win situation for all.
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